A decade following the UK entered into a hasty public vote that split the country and triggered chaos, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the political, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is imminent, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the lack of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in academia but hardly any government figures or activists want to engage even with the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Each authors two pieces that seek objectivity in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and social data, past examples and structural examples.
Debates encompass national emblems, taxes, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate claim they support unification but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to reflect unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government should determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent official who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will in the end lose but all factions has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the other's positions."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the debate, said O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
