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Typically, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year honor adheres to a simple pattern. It commonly serves as a form of mea culpa. Sorry we misjudged your squad in our preseason forecasts.

In theory, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the skipper who orchestrated the biggest improvement is handed the prize. In reality, it creates an annual discussion about expectations and whether we're truly honoring excellent leadership or just the greatest shock.

But the latest race is distinctly unique. The list of contenders is exceptionally deep. It has been the campaign of comebacks. The league has been messy, with reigning division winners declining and recent also-rans ascending collectively. During an normal season, Sean Payton guiding the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the stone-cold favorite. But in this wild and entertaining year, he's competing with multiple other outstanding coaches.

This is how the hypothetical ballot should be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year voters adore signal-callers. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you fix a franchise QB, you're halfway to winning the award.

Ben Johnson not only corrected his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. Within an ideal system, the QB has been given the chance to display his otherworldly talent. From midseason onward, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. That's not a lucky run – it's consistent excellence. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become increasingly confident, far less careless, and has willingly surrendered to the system instead of freelancing. It is an attack constructed solely in Johnson's image: a physical ground attack, a heavy helping of play-action passes and a creative passing attack that creates wide receiver receivers all over the field. Williams has capitalized. And when openings weren't available, he's been capable to conjure big plays from broken plays.

The coach arrived to the Bears with a defined offensive blueprint. Virtually each bet – rebuilding the offensive line, utilizing the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a timing-based passer – has succeeded. That's rare for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who walked into the building with the immense hype Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the hottest name on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has met expectations – and even exceeded them. He's proven not just to be a scheme genius but the type of leader that can inject new life into an franchise.

In a ordinary year, Johnson would be the clear-cut favorite. But the current isn't a normal campaign!

Where his candidacy comes slightly unstuck is on defense. The Chicago defense presently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are living on takeaways, and takeaways are notoriously unreliable. Coaches can stress ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is sustainable. He's ranked lower because variance is doing too much of the defensive heavy lifting. With a couple bounces of the ball, the team would be two wins worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the core is established for sustained winning. However he falls short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

Coen is in a similar position to Johnson. He's another rookie leader who has orchestrated a swift turnaround. Over the crucial final weeks of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete all-around football of his career. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defensive unit that now sits at number five in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more notably, he has mastered the leadership aspects, which was not a guarantee after his initial press conference appearances and some of his preseason decisions.

The coach took over Jacksonville with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. In contrast to Johnson, who packed their staff with the ideal staff mix of youth and veteran savvy, he hired first-timers. Starting with the head coach on down to coordinators to position coaches, the Jags are filled with first-timers. That kind of setup is exciting on paper, but often fails in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is learning a new job on the fly. But he has managed to bring the entire group and all elements together.

Following an initial hot beginning, there was a risk that the season would veer off the track. A mid-year collapse had the Jags stumbling once more. That's usually when leaders panic and change too much. He did not. Instead, he streamlined things. Jacksonville stopped chasing explosive answers and started seeking sustainable ones. The coach refocused the attack around his playmakers and the ground attack, and asked Lawrence to use his mobility more.

The results are evident. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the conference's No 3 seed. He gets the tiniest knock in the rankings because he inherited a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, Their Record

Each Coach of the Year argument has a pivotal moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback decision.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a different signal-caller and pairing him with an innovative play-caller might have ended the season in the early weeks. Rather, it made it. Through the middle point of the year, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has regressed since that hot streak, slipping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the second half of the schedule, placing him only a single spot ahead of peers.

Still