🔗 Share this article A Prediction Market User Profited $Nearly Half a Million on Wagers Predicting Maduro's Downfall. In this photo illustration, a Polymarket logo is seen displayed on a smartphone. An individual made nearly half a million dollars from wagers on the downfall of Venezuela's president just before it was officially announced, leading to inquiries about potential gains made from non-public details of the US operation. Changing Odds in Wagers Wagers on Polymarket, a crypto-powered platform, that Nicolás Maduro would be no longer in control by the end of January surged in the time leading up to former President Trump declared on Saturday that Maduro had been taken into custody. One account, which became a member last month and took four positions, all on Venezuela, profited a total of $436,000 from a modest bet of $32,537. Who placed the bet is a mystery. This unidentified trader had only a cryptographic address for identification. Odds Fluctuate Before Public Statement Platform data shows that traders assessed the probability of a political change at just a low 6.5 percent in the late afternoon of the prior Friday. But the market's assessment had climbed to 11% by the end of the day and skyrocketed in the first hours of the next day, suggesting a rapid movement in market sentiment right before the official statement was made. "This specific wager has all the hallmarks of a trade based on non-public details," commented a financial reform advocate. A small number of other platform users also earned significant sums from bets on the same outcome. Regulatory Scrutiny Emerges Elected officials are beginning to pay attention. A new rule put forward on recently aims to prohibit federal workers from making trades on forecasting platforms if they have "confidential government knowledge" related to a wager. Market Background Event-driven betting sites have grown significantly in the United States, with traders able to bet on everything from sports to politics. Prediction markets encountered regulatory challenges under the Biden administration. But it has experienced less resistance during the Trump presidency. Insider trading is against the law in the securities markets, but there are fewer regulations in the event betting arena. A company executive for Kalshi said their site "has clear rules against trading on insider information of any form."